Academics have built models to assess the probability of a putsch
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Original Source: One Earth Future, NGO
Coupcast carries out quantitative forecasting of sudden regime changes. Some of the factors linked to higher coup risk include falls in the economic wellbeing of the populous, extreme weather and, in particular, political factors - autocrats who cling to power & dictators who stay in office for too long.
What's really cool is that Algeria was rated as the most likely to experience a coup BEFORE the latest leader was ousted.