In 2018 Apple recorded a record 265.5 billion in revenue.
Below is my attempt to predict this figure based on past data including quarterly data collected from Apple's accounts and World Customer Confidence Index.
SAMRIMA - Best forecast using heuristics e.g. ACF,PACF, heteroskedicity - error terms Dickey Fuller- stationarity
I used heuristics rather than a train/test as the data was limited
A little high as expected using just past data with such an upward trend but very close to the actual. Apple had no surprises in 2018. 2019 looks different!
Modelling with multivariate time series. I need to collect more data and clean. I would like to run sentiment analysis series alongside
To be continued.
LSTM - long short term memory neural networks in KERAS SpaCy for some NLP and sentiment analysis. Especially to follow Apple in 2019
It would be good to have alot more data for this neural network. I have not used it before and would like to explore it for time series.
Below are some functions I found to test for normality, serial correlation, heteroelasticity Model grid search
APPROXIMATLEY for 2018 Quarters from graph 57+51+59 +100 = 267 billion
Is Apple's trend on the turn for 2019?
It would be good to have a go at a multivariate time series.
Data such as: Consumer Confidence - China Revenue forecasts for major suppliers like foxcom Revenue forecasts from sellars like AT&T - iphone 60% of revenue Consensus forecasts of analysts